February 3, 2010

Too good to be true? Amazon still hasn’t capitulated

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Amazon may have complained bitterly about “capitulating,” but the company has yet to put buy buttons back up for Macmillan‘s books, meaning that the publisher’s titles have essentially been censored from Amazon for four days now, and meaning that it hasn’t capitulated at all.

As of this writing — 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday — Amazon still has not replaced the buy buttons on Macmillan bestsellers such as Wolf Hall by Hilary Mantel, The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande and The Politician by Andrew Young.

According to a report on the New York Times book blog Bits, “An Amazon spokesman declined to comment. Amazon is most likely withholding the books to maintain its leverage in negotiations, trying to get the best possible terms under the new agency model.”

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal report notes that Amazon stock is taking a beating for a second straight day, closing at 118.9, which was down another $.75 per share. This, even though there was general agreement with Macmillan head John Sargent‘s claim that Amazon would actually make more money under his offer to them than they would make under theirs — as a Goldman Sachs analyst put it, “We believe Macmillan’s characterization of the financial impact on Amazon is correct, since 30% of $12 or $15 is likely more than what Amazon is earning on a consignment basis from major publishers today.”

However the prognosis seems more concerned with what the future holds for the Kindle: “Unfortunately it seems like investors still aren’t very excited by the potential for additional revenue and are instead focused on what increasingly looks like a fact that Amazon.com won’t be the next Apple.” Josh Brown, in a commentary at the Reformed Broker, observes that “This isn’t analysis or research, merely common sense. After a spectacular runup to its pre-Christmas high of 152 … Amazon now finds itself, here in early February, dangling above that enormous gap like the Sword of Damacles.”

Dennis Johnson is the founder of MobyLives, and the co-founder and co-publisher of Melville House.

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